With the recent drop in gas prices, should online retailers expect a cheery holiday sales forecast? According to the National Federation of Retailers (NRF) one-fifth of all retail sales in the United States occur during the holiday season. With the critical holiday shopping season upon us, many companies are gearing up for a busy and eventful holiday season.

Although they expect holiday sales to be "subdued" this holiday season, the NRF still expects a gain of 5 percent to $457.4 billion, which is short of last years 6.1 percent increase. But, online holiday sales will continue their fast-paced trend, with sales expected to reach 27 billion (Forrester Research, Inc.), which would represent a 23 percent increase over last year.

Another holiday season forecast by eMarketer, predicts that during November and December, online retailers will have sales figures of 24.3 billion; which is a 22.1 percent increase over last year.

However, Jupiter Research, Inc., paints an even rosier sales forecast calling for 2006 online sales to be 32 billion, which would be an increase of 18 percent over last year. Additionally, Jupiter reports a record 114 million users will shop online in 2006.

In an October survey cosponsored by Shop.org, an e-commerce arm of the NRF, and Shopzilla, which is a comparison-shopping site, it was reported that 72 percent of the online retailers expected good (15%-plus) year-over-year online sales growth this holiday season. Twenty-one percent of the retailers forecast hyper growth (75%-plus) year-over-year online sales growth.

But with all these facts, figures and forecasts, what will holiday shoppers be looking for this year? According to NRF research, gift cards continue to be big sellers and this year many stores are capitalizing on this trend by offering cards geared toward the individual's lifestyle, adding that some cards are even personalized by including photographs or a particular theme.

More "hot" gifts included in the NRF research included women's clothing, specifically, plaid and hand-knit crocheted looks in women's categories, sweater dresses, short jackets and boots. Additionally, look for diet products, gift certificates to spas or gyms, cell phones and cell phone accessories, ipods, computer gaming products and computer gifts to be very popular on the wish list for young adults and teens.

Of course, we have all heard of the new Tickle Me Elmo 10th Anniversary Edition dolls that are any child's list from age seven and under. But is the demand for this toy going to dwindle the supply down to nothing? Probably. But, Fisher-Price insists there is going to be a steady flow of product going out to the retailers. Retailers have taken steps to assure they don't run out of a product by limiting the number of an individual product that a customer can buy when that product is in short supply, with the idea being that there should be enough for everyone. But could Tickle Me Elmo winds up on ebay selling at outrageous prices because of shortages? It already has.